Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects by the use of  Monte Carlo Simulation: The CBA-DK Model

Kim Bang Salling; Steen Leleur

doi:10.1109/WSC.2006.322924

Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects by the use of Monte Carlo Simulation: The CBA-DK Model

Kim Bang Salling, Steen Leleur

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Abstract

This paper presents the Danish CBA-DK software model for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The as-sessment model is based on both a deterministic calcula-tion following the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodol-ogy in a Danish manual from the Ministry of Transport and on a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis (RA) is car-ried out using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). After a de-scription of the deterministic and stochastic calculations emphasis is paid to the RA part of CBA-DK with consid-erations about which probability distributions to make use of. Furthermore, a comprehensive assessment of the set of distributions are made. Finally conclusions and a perspec-tive are presented.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference
Publisher	IEEE
Publication date	2006
Pages	1537-1544
ISBN (Print)	1-4244-0500-9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2006.322924
Publication status	Published - 2006
Event	Winter Simulation Conference 2006 - Monterey, United States Duration: 3 Dec 2006 → 6 Dec 2006

Conference

Conference	Winter Simulation Conference 2006
Country/Territory	United States
City	Monterey
Period	03/12/2006 → 06/12/2006

Bibliographical note

Copyright: 2006 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE

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10.1109/WSC.2006.322924

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SallingK41700Submitted manuscript, 782 KB

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Cite this

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abstract = "This paper presents the Danish CBA-DK software model for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The as-sessment model is based on both a deterministic calcula-tion following the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodol-ogy in a Danish manual from the Ministry of Transport and on a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis (RA) is car-ried out using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). After a de-scription of the deterministic and stochastic calculations emphasis is paid to the RA part of CBA-DK with consid-erations about which probability distributions to make use of. Furthermore, a comprehensive assessment of the set of distributions are made. Finally conclusions and a perspec-tive are presented.",

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