Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

Kim Bang Salling, David Banister

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future
    PublisherIEEE
    Publication date2008
    Publication statusPublished - 2008
    EventInternational Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future - Rotterdam, The Netherlands
    Duration: 1 Jan 2008 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceInternational Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future
    CityRotterdam, The Netherlands
    Period01/01/2008 → …

    Keywords

    • Optimism Bias
    • Cost Benefit Analysis
    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Support

    Cite this

    Salling, K. B., & Banister, D. (2008). Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model. In International Conference on Infrastructure Systems: Building Networks for a Brighter Future IEEE. http://www.nginfra.nl/conference2008/