Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

Kim Bang Salling; David Banister

Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

Kim Bang Salling, David Banister

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

Abstract

The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future
Publisher	IEEE
Publication date	2008
Publication status	Published - 2008
Event	International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future - Rotterdam, The Netherlands Duration: 1 Jan 2008 → …

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future
City	Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Period	01/01/2008 → …

Keywords

Optimism Bias
Cost Benefit Analysis
Risk Analysis
Decision Support

Access to Document

http://www.nginfra.nl/conference2008/

Cite this

Salling, K. B., & Banister, D. (2008). Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model. In International Conference on Infrastructure Systems: Building Networks for a Brighter Future IEEE. http://www.nginfra.nl/conference2008/

@inproceedings{25c85d0980f644cdbf97719f26b0613d,

title = "Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model",

abstract = "The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.",

keywords = "Optimism Bias, Cost Benefit Analysis, Risk Analysis, Decision Support",

author = "Salling, {Kim Bang} and David Banister",

year = "2008",

language = "English",

booktitle = "International Conference on Infrastructure Systems",

publisher = "IEEE",

address = "United States",

note = "International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future, NGInfra ; Conference date: 01-01-2008",

}

Salling, KB & Banister, D 2008, Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model. in International Conference on Infrastructure Systems: Building Networks for a Brighter Future. IEEE, International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 01/01/2008. <http://www.nginfra.nl/conference2008/>

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AU - Banister, David

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N2 - The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.

AB - The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.

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