Abstract
The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. This study has been conducted in coorporation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future |
| Publisher | IEEE |
| Publication date | 2008 |
| Publication status | Published - 2008 |
| Event | International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future - Rotterdam, The Netherlands Duration: 1 Jan 2008 → … |
Conference
| Conference | International Conference on Infrastructure Systems : Building Networks for a Brighter Future |
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| City | Rotterdam, The Netherlands |
| Period | 01/01/2008 → … |
Keywords
- Optimism Bias
- Cost Benefit Analysis
- Risk Analysis
- Decision Support