Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

Research output: Contribution to conferenceConference abstract for conferenceResearchpeer-review

Abstract

During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliability of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity models have been explored in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model features relevant to sea level modeling, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines.
In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland due to GIA.
GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2012
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2012
EventThe third Ice2Sea Open Forum - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 14 Feb 201216 Feb 2012
Conference number: 3
http://www.ice2sea.eu/site/open-forum-3-amsterdam/

Conference

ConferenceThe third Ice2Sea Open Forum
Number3
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period14/02/201216/02/2012
Internet address

Cite this

Barletta, V. R., & Spada, G. (2012). Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling. Abstract from The third Ice2Sea Open Forum , Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Barletta, Valentina Roberta ; Spada, G. / Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling. Abstract from The third Ice2Sea Open Forum , Amsterdam, Netherlands.1 p.
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author = "Barletta, {Valentina Roberta} and G. Spada",
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language = "English",
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Barletta, VR & Spada, G 2012, 'Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling', The third Ice2Sea Open Forum , Amsterdam, Netherlands, 14/02/2012 - 16/02/2012.

Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling. / Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

2012. Abstract from The third Ice2Sea Open Forum , Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceConference abstract for conferenceResearchpeer-review

TY - ABST

T1 - Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

AU - Barletta, Valentina Roberta

AU - Spada, G.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliability of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity models have been explored in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model features relevant to sea level modeling, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines.In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland due to GIA.GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA.

AB - During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliability of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity models have been explored in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model features relevant to sea level modeling, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines.In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland due to GIA.GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA.

M3 - Conference abstract for conference

ER -

Barletta VR, Spada G. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling. 2012. Abstract from The third Ice2Sea Open Forum , Amsterdam, Netherlands.