Are car ownership preferences changing? An age cohort analysis

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Conventionally transport demand models have been developed under the assumption of “static preferences”. However, it is possible that preferences evolve over time and not accounting for such changes may lead to biased forecasts. In this paper we address the question of stable preferences with respect to car ownership and consider if preferences differ across different generations. We use multiple cross-sectional data collected by the Danish Transport Survey over a period of 40 years. The repeated cross-sectional data provides the opportunity to analyse the evolution of car ownership preferences, as well as to evaluate the effect of age cohorts over time. Methodologically we apply a pooled cross-sectional approach and estimate a generic discrete choice model in which we control for a range of time dependent input variables. These variables include socioeconomic variables measured at the individual level, cost variable for the cost of driving and price index
corrections for the price of owning cars. The hypothesis put forward in the paper is that propensity to car ownership for younger generations is decreasing over time. This hypothesis is confirmed and suggests that car ownership predictions may be affected by upcoming generations’ preferences.
Original languageEnglish
Publication date2018
Number of pages4
Publication statusPublished - 2018
EventhEART 2018: 7th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation - NTUA campus, Athens, Greece
Duration: 5 Sep 20187 Sep 2018
Conference number: 7


ConferencehEART 2018: 7th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation
LocationNTUA campus
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