Appraisal of Airport Alternatives in Greenland by the use of Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Kim Bang Salling, Steen Leleur

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncer-tain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time sav-ings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit-cost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationWinter Simulation Conference '07
    Volume40th anniversary
    Publisheriel
    Publication date2007
    Pages1986-1993
    ISBN (Print)9781424413058
    Publication statusPublished - 2007
    Event2007 Winter Simulation Conference - Washington DC, United States
    Duration: 9 Dec 200712 Dec 2007

    Conference

    Conference2007 Winter Simulation Conference
    CountryUnited States
    CityWashington DC
    Period09/12/200712/12/2007

    Keywords

    • Transport Appraisal
    • Monte Carlo Simulation
    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Support System

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