Application of wind speed forecasting to the integration of wind energy into a large scale power system

The use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as used by national meteorological agencies is assessed in conjunction with a physical flow model and a statistical model as a means of predicting wind power that could be generated by a large number of wind turbines spread throughout the UK. Economic benefits have been demonstrated, and are evaluated in the form of fossil fuel savings using a numerical simulation model which emulates the power plant scheduling of the England and Wales National Grid. The results highlight the importance of effective planning of on-line reserve capacity to cover sudden deficits in wind power generation.