Intermodal travel behavior plays a more and more important role in the multimodal urban transportation system. It is essential to know the characteristics of the intermodal travel behavior and being able to forecast the market shares to examine the potential effect of sustainable transport policies. The aim of this paper is to understand the underlying preferences of individual commuters with respect to mode choices including both direct modes and multimodal (transfer) modes and to forecast the (changes in) market shares by making non-car alternatives more attractive in order to recommend suitable policies. The mode choice model is based on a stated preference (SP) experiment, which was conducted in Nanjing, China. We found all the parameter estimates to be intuitive (e.g. negative parameters for travel time and cost). The forecasting results show that in order to increase the transit share rates, the most useful strategy is to enhance the bus travel speed, which e.g. can be achieved through dedicated bus lanes or signal prioritization.
|Publication status||Accepted/In press - 2020|