An integrated end-to-end modeling framework for testing ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures in the Baltic Sea

We present an integrated end-to-end modeling framework that enables whole-of ecosystem climate, eutrophication, and spatial management scenario exploration in the Baltic Sea. The framework is built around the Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end ATLANTIS model, linked to the high-resolution coupled physical-biological model HBM-ERGOM and the fisheries bio-economic FishRent model. We investigate ecosystem-wide responses to changes in human-induced pressures by simulating several eutrophication scenarios that are relevant to existing Baltic Sea management plans (e.g. EU BSAP, EU CFP). We further present the structure and calibration of the Baltic ATLANTIS model and the operational linkage to the other models. Using the results of eutrophication scenarios, and focusing on the relative changes in fish and fishery production, we discuss the robustness of the model linking with respect to the underlying assumptions, strengths and weaknesses of individual models. Furthermore, we describe how to possibly expand the framework to account for spatial impacts and economic consequences, for instance by linking to the individual-vessel based DISPLACE modeling approach. We conclude that the proposed model integration and management scenario evaluation scheme lays the foundations for developing a robust framework for management strategy evaluation that is of strategic importance to stakeholders from around the Baltic Sea.