Abnormal Waves Modelled as Second-order Conditional Waves

The paper presents results for the expected second order short-crested wave conditional of a given wave crest at a specific point in time and space. The analysis is based on the second order Sharma and Dean shallow water wave theory. Numerical results showing the importance of the spectral density, the water depth and the directional spreading on the conditional mean wave profile are presented. Application of conditional waves to model and explain abnormal waves, e.g. the well-known New Year Wave measured at the Draupner platform January 1st 1995, is discussed. Whereas the wave profile can be modelled quite well by the second order conditional wave including directional spreading and finite water depth the probability to encounter such a wave is still, however, extremely rare. The use of the second order conditional wave as initial condition to a fully non-linear three-dimensional analysis is suggested as computational efficient procedure for the analysis of extreme wave events.