A Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model Considering Differences in Passengers Utility Functions

The paper presents a framework for public transport assignment that builds on the probit-based model of Sheffi & Powell (1981 & 1982). Hereby, the problems with overlapping routes that occur in many public transport models can be avoided. In the paper, the probit-based model in its pure form is changed similar to the principles in Nielsen (1996). This makes it possible to describe passengers different preferences towards different sub-modes and against transfers. This also considers dependencies of choices through chains of sub-modes. The simulation of perceived travel times is extended to describe differences in the distribution of travel times and waiting times for different sub-modes. Parallel lines are frequency aggregated in order to handle waiting times appropriate. Initial tests shows, that the methodology can be estimated to describe route choices in public transport very well. This is both due to the probit model’s ability to describe overlapping routes and due to the many different weights and distributions that make it possible to calibrate the model. In practice, the many parameters might also be the methods main weakness, since this complicates the calibration.