A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish

Sofie Theresa Thomsen*, Waldo de Boer, Sara Monteiro Pires, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Sisse Fagt, Rikke Andersen, Morten Poulsen, Hilko van der Voet

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.
Original languageEnglish
JournalFood and Chemical Toxicology
Volume126
Pages (from-to)79-96
ISSN0278-6915
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Disability-Adjusted Life Year(DALY)
  • Food-based dietary guidelines
  • Health impact
  • Risk-benefit assessment (RBA)
  • Substitution
  • Usual intake difference model

Cite this

@article{e92db983d508412eacbaa15ccf294e97,
title = "A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish",
abstract = "Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95{\%} UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.",
keywords = "Disability-Adjusted Life Year(DALY), Food-based dietary guidelines, Health impact, Risk-benefit assessment (RBA), Substitution, Usual intake difference model",
author = "Thomsen, {Sofie Theresa} and {de Boer}, Waldo and Pires, {Sara Monteiro} and Brecht Devleesschauwer and Sisse Fagt and Rikke Andersen and Morten Poulsen and {van der Voet}, Hilko",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1016/j.fct.2019.02.018",
language = "English",
volume = "126",
pages = "79--96",
journal = "Food and Chemical Toxicology",
issn = "0278-6915",
publisher = "Pergamon Press",

}

A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish. / Thomsen, Sofie Theresa; de Boer, Waldo; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Fagt, Sisse; Andersen, Rikke; Poulsen, Morten; van der Voet, Hilko.

In: Food and Chemical Toxicology, Vol. 126, 2019, p. 79-96.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish

AU - Thomsen, Sofie Theresa

AU - de Boer, Waldo

AU - Pires, Sara Monteiro

AU - Devleesschauwer, Brecht

AU - Fagt, Sisse

AU - Andersen, Rikke

AU - Poulsen, Morten

AU - van der Voet, Hilko

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.

AB - Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.

KW - Disability-Adjusted Life Year(DALY)

KW - Food-based dietary guidelines

KW - Health impact

KW - Risk-benefit assessment (RBA)

KW - Substitution

KW - Usual intake difference model

U2 - 10.1016/j.fct.2019.02.018

DO - 10.1016/j.fct.2019.02.018

M3 - Journal article

VL - 126

SP - 79

EP - 96

JO - Food and Chemical Toxicology

JF - Food and Chemical Toxicology

SN - 0278-6915

ER -