A planetary boundary-based life cycle assessment of lithium-ion batteries production for electric vehicles

While lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the green transition in transportation sector, their production is energy and resource-intensive, generating impacts that can threaten Planetary Boundaries (PB). The implications of LIBs production and consumption relative to PB remain insufficiently understood. This study conducts an Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment (AESA) using a PB-based Life Cycle Assessment (PB-LCA) to evaluate LIBs production for Electric Vehicles (EV) supplying the largest global markets, China, EU-27, and the USA, in 2023 and 2030, aiming to identify PB transgressions and support sustainable production decisions. Five sharing principles for allocating the Safe Operating Space (SOS) were tested. Results indicate that LIBs production is environmentally unsustainable for all markets in 2023 and 2030, with transgressions observed in 8 of 10 PB categories. The EU-27 and the USA show the largest exceedances of the allocated SOS, driven by consumption dominated by larger EV and batteries with high nickel content. Although PB transgressions tend to decline in 2030 due to increased penetration of renewable energy in material and cell manufacturing, production can remain unsustainable in the three markets. The analysis also reveals substantial sensitivity of AESA results to the chosen sharing principle. The findings are relevant for policymakers and the battery industry by highlighting production hotspots and the need for integrated industrial, energy, and demand-side policies to achieve sustainable LIBs production. Key strategies include reducing material intensity, increasing renewable energy use in cell, component, and raw material production, and implementing policy incentives to shift consumption toward smaller EV and batteries.