A Long-Term Strategy to Decarbonise the Danish Inland Passenger Transport Sector

Jacopo Tattini, Eamonn Mulholland, Giada Venturini, Mohammad Ahanchian, Maurizio Gargiulo, Olexandr Balyk, Kenneth Bernard Karlsson

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    Abstract

    This study applies a novel modelling framework to assess how alternative policies may contribute to a fossil-free transport sector for Denmark and the potential contribution they may have to a well-below 2 °C world. The approach adopted consists of linking an energy system optimisation model, TIMES-DKMS, with a private car simulation model, the Danish Car Stock Model. The results of this study include the magnitude of CO2 abatement presented alongside the corresponding change in tax revenue generated through combinations of policies focusing on the derogation of motor taxes for low emission vehicles and banning the sale of the internal combustion engines. The resulting cumulative emissions from the Danish energy system are also compared to a range of national carbon budgets, calculated to adhere to various levels of global temperature rise at different levels of confidence. The results indicate that a ban on the sale of the internal combustion engines enforced in 2025 would enable the largest cut in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions of all the policies considered. However, none of the policies analysed comply with Denmark’s carbon budget capable of maintaining the increase of global temperature limited to 1.5 °C.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationLimiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development
    PublisherSpringer
    Publication date2018
    Pages137-153
    Publication statusPublished - 2018
    SeriesLecture Notes in Energy
    Volume64
    ISSN2195-1284

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