A Joint Probability Distribution Model for Multivariate Wind and Wave Conditions

Erik Vanem, Elias Fekhari, Nikolay Dimitrov, Mark Kelly, Alexis Cousin, Martin Guiton

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a joint statistical model that has been fitted to data of wind and wave conditions for an offshore location at South Brittany. The data are from a numerical model and contain hourly values for several wind and wave variables over a period of 32 years. The joint distribution presented in this paper considers the variables wind direction, mean wind speed, significant wave height, wave direction and peak period. A conditional model for turbulence given wind speed is introduced to yield an additional variable for the joint model. The joint model is constructed as a product of marginal and conditional models for the various variables. Additionally, the fitted models will be used to construct environmental contours for some of the variables. For significant wave height, various models are used to obtain different extreme value estimates, illustrating the uncertainties involved in extrapolating statistical models beyond the support of the data, and a discussion on the use of non-parametric copulas for the joint distribution is presented. Such joint distribution models are important input for design of offshore structures, and in particular for offshore wind turbines and the influence of the joint model in design is illustrated by a simple case study.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering: Conference Proceedings
Number of pages16
Volume2
PublisherThe American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Publication date2023
Article numberOMAE2023-101961
ISBN (Electronic)978-0-7918-8684-7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Event42nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering - Melbourne, Australia
Duration: 11 Jun 202316 Jun 2023

Conference

Conference42nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityMelbourne
Period11/06/202316/06/2023

Keywords

  • Joint probability distributions
  • Wind-wave environment
  • Offshore wind
  • Renewable energy
  • Environmental loads

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