A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

J. C. Refsgaard; H. Madsen; V. Andréassian; Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen; T. A. Davidson; Martin Drews; D. P. Hamilton; E. Jeppesen; E. Kjellström; J. E. Olesen; T. O. Sonnenborg; Didde Trolle; P. Willems; J. H. Christensen

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

J. C. Refsgaard, H. Madsen, V. Andréassian, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, T. A. Davidson, Martin Drews, D. P. Hamilton, E. Jeppesen, E. Kjellström, J. E. Olesen, T. O. Sonnenborg, Didde Trolle, P. Willems, J. H. Christensen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Abstract

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

Original language	English
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume	122
Issue number	2-2
Pages (from-to)	271-282
Number of pages	1
ISSN	0165-0009
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
Publication status	Published - 2014

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Refsgaard, J. C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T. A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D. P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J. E., Sonnenborg, T. O., Trolle, D., Willems, P., & Christensen, J. H. (2014). A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Climatic Change, 122(2-2), 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

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title = "A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts",

abstract = "Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.",

author = "Refsgaard, {J. C.} and H. Madsen and V. Andr{\'e}assian and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen and Davidson, {T. A.} and Martin Drews and Hamilton, {D. P.} and E. Jeppesen and E. Kjellstr{\"o}m and Olesen, {J. E.} and Sonnenborg, {T. O.} and Didde Trolle and P. Willems and Christensen, {J. H.}",

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doi = "10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2",

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Refsgaard, JC, Madsen, H, Andréassian, V, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K, Davidson, TA, Drews, M, Hamilton, DP, Jeppesen, E, Kjellström, E, Olesen, JE, Sonnenborg, TO, Trolle, D, Willems, P & Christensen, JH 2014, 'A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts', Climatic Change, vol. 122, no. 2-2, pp. 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

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T1 - A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

AU - Refsgaard, J. C.

AU - Madsen, H.

AU - Andréassian, V.

AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

AU - Davidson, T. A.

AU - Drews, Martin

AU - Hamilton, D. P.

AU - Jeppesen, E.

AU - Kjellström, E.

AU - Olesen, J. E.

AU - Sonnenborg, T. O.

AU - Trolle, Didde

AU - Willems, P.

AU - Christensen, J. H.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

AB - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

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DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0165-0009

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SP - 271

EP - 282

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

IS - 2-2

ER -

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

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