A European model for the number of end-of-life vehicles

Frits Møller Andersen, Helge V. Larsen, M. Skovgaard

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


    This paper describes a model for the projection of the number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) and presents a baseline projection. Historical data on population, the number of cars per capita (car density), GDP per capita, and the vintage distribution of cars are combined to model ELVs. The lifetime of vintages of cars is described by a Weibull distribution and the development in car density is modelled by a Gompertz function. Parameters of the distribution and function are calibrated by using historical data, mainly from Eurostat. The paper presents a baseline projection of the number of ELVs for the EU25.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalInternational Journal of Automotive Technology and Management
    Issue number4
    Pages (from-to)343-355
    Publication statusPublished - 2007


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