A case study of neurodevelopmental risks from combined exposures to lead, methyl-mercury, inorganic arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and fluoride

We performed a mixture risk assessment (MRA) case study of dietary exposure to the food contaminants lead, methylmercury, inorganic arsenic (iAs), fluoride, non-dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (NDL-PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), all substances associated with declines in cognitive abilities measured as IQ loss. Most of these chemicals are frequently measured in human biomonitoring studies. A component-based, personalised modified reference point index (mRPI) approach, in which we expressed the exposures and potencies of our chosen substances as lead equivalent values, was applied to perform a MRA for dietary exposures. We conducted the assessment for four different age groups (toddlers, children, adolescents, and women aged 18–45 years) in nine European countries. Populations in all countries considered exceeded combined tolerable levels at median exposure levels. NDL-PCBs in fish, other seafood and dairy, lead in grains and fruits, methylmercury in fish and other seafoods, and fluoride in water contributed most to the combined exposure. We identified uncertainties for the likelihood of co-exposure, assessment group membership, endpoint-specific reference values (ESRVs) based on epidemiological (lead, methylmercury, iAs, fluoride and NDL-PCBs) and animal data (PBDE), and exposure data. Those uncertainties lead to a complex pattern of under- and overestimations, which would require probabilistic modelling based on expert knowledge elicitation for integration of the identified uncertainties into an overall uncertainty estimate. In addition, the identified uncertainties could be used to refine future MRA for cognitive decline.