Prescriptive Analytics for District Heating Networks

2/3 of all Danish households are heated using a district heating network. Since the 1970s this method of heating has been dominant in Denmark and many pipe segments are nearing the end of their predicted lifetime, forcing operators to consider when the optimal renewal time is given a cost discrepancy between renewal at failure and planned renewal.

Renewal is expensive because of the underground network location. When pipes fail in the heating season they must be renewed as soon as possible, this comes with additional cost compared to a planned renewal.

The processes behind pipe deterioration is not well understood. All components weaken over time and for large networks it does not seem unreasonable to expect that the global fault-arrival time is a stochastic process.

Renewal theory studies such systems and if the statistical evidence is strong enough might help decide if planned renewal could be profitable and if it is, when should it be done.

In Denmark District Heating is a dual technology which uses societal waste products and excess heat production from electricity plants to cover societal heating demands and keeping the price low is important.