Modelling and evaluation of reservoir systems in southern Africa

  • Rosbjerg, Dan (Project Manager)
  • Kjeldsen, Thomas Rødding (Project Participant)

    Project Details

    Description

    The aim of the project is to enhance the applicability of the river basin planning and management model "Mike Basin" in the case of multiple reservoir systems. Modelling guidelines and system evaluation tools will be developed to assist in decision-making, in particular in relation to sustainable water resources management in semiarid parts of southern Africa. The Mike Basin model will be used together with stochastic time series methods in order to assess the uncertainty of decision criteria. In 1999 the Mike Basin model has been coupled with a multivariate stochastic streamflow generator for simulation of monthly flow in ephemeral rivers. Time series of annual and monthly river flow from selected Zimbabwean and South African rivers have been analysed in order to identify proper stochastic models. Especially, the reproduction of drought characteristics such as deficit volume and duration is considered important. The relative sustainability of different future scenarios is estimated through a combination of the system's reliability, resilience and vulnerability. Work is in progress to determine the most suitable estimators of the criteria. Finally, the modelling system will be applied to two case studies of river basins situated in Zimbabwe and South Africa respectively. Currently, the Mike Basin model has been set up and calibrated for the 9000 square km Mgeni-Mkomazi catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Work is still ongoing to finish the model setup of the Mupfure catchment in Zimbabwe.
    Ph.D. study by Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen funded by DTU.
    StatusActive
    Effective start/end date01/02/1998 → …