Living well below 3 tons

To meet the Paris Agreement, countries must cut greenhouse gas emissions to keep below a 1.5- degree global temperature rise, aiming to reduce consumption-based emissions to under 3 tons of CO2e per person by 2030. This requires halving the global carbon footprint from 2020 and cutting
Danish emissions by 75%. Achieving this involves technological advancements across all sectors, including food, housing, and mobility, and shifts in societal structures and consumption patterns. The project engages Danish young adults in envisioning sustainable futures and low-emission living, empowering them to rethink social norms and practices. Scenarios meeting the 3 tons target are
developed to facilitate discussions on sustainable change. The project thus offers a framework to align visions and aspirations with planetary boundaries and bridges the gap between citizens and decision-makers.

The project consists of three work packages (WPs). The purpose of WP1 is to engage young adults in envisioning their ideal future, forming the foundation for the scenarios developed in WP2. Activities include project initiation, participant recruitment, vision workshops, and preparation for WP3. WP2 aims to establish a baseline for Denmark’s current, sector-and consumption-based emissions and
forecast sectoral contributions by 2030. Scenarios are developed to achieve a maximum of 3 tons of CO2e per person by 2030, based on the visions from WP1. WP3 will use these scenarios to challenge the target group's expectations, encouraging reflections on sustainable lifestyles. Follow-up communication and outreach activities will foster discussions on adapting to a 3-ton lifestyle, with a
focus on creating a safe space for open dialogue. This includes a set of different outreach and communication activities. A dialogue workshop and a final report will document and share insights, aiming to influence policy and decision-makers in support of youth-driven visions for a sustainable
future.

DTU leads WP2 (full description):

WP2: Consumption-based emission projections and scenarios
The purpose of WP2 is to establish a baseline for different sectors' current contribution to Denmark's global consumption emissions; to forecast the sectors’ contributions in 2030 based on (expected) technological improvements; and to develop different scenarios for a mix of sectoral emissions that
ensures a maximum annual emission of 3 tons CO2e per citizen in 2030. These scenarios will be built on the wishes and dreams expressed by the target group through activities in WP1. The baseline and projections will be done in collaboration between CONCITO and DTU. WP2 is
divided into three main activities:

Baseline and projections: Based on existing data for Denmarks GHG emissions (e.g. from Exiobase), the first step will be to calculate a baseline for different sectors’ contributions to the current emissions. This includes setting up and discussing different distributions of activities to different sectors. The second step will be to link scenarios for future technology improvements (e.g. based on integrated assessment models), and projected consumption changes with
historical emission and other environmental data across the identified sectors. Based on this, we will make a projection for future GHG-emissions of specific consumption patterns.

Develop 3 tons scenarios: Based on the visions mapped in WP1, we will develop several scenarios resembling different, quantifiable consumption profiles (overview of products and services). It is not given that the visions align with a 3-tons lifestyle at this stage of the project. By linking the consumption profiles to the baseline projection for 2030, we can explore different options for reaching (as close as possible to) 3 tons of CO2e per person per year, highlighting choices and priorities between sectors and showcasing the importance/dependence on various political choices and different priorities.

Analyze and translate: The final step in WP2 will be to translate the emission baseline, the projection and the scenarios into relatable and everyday-meaningful examples of emission reduced lifestyle elements. For example, one scenario could allocate 0.5 tons of CO2e (out of the 3 tons) to “housing”, which would translate into lifestyle elements such as “heating/comfort”, “square meters living space” and “type of house”. The lifestyle elements will
be used in discussions in WP3 and for outreach/output activities.