Climate change and future marine ecosystem services and biodiversity (FutureMares) (39791)

Marine and transitional ecosystems provide fundamental climate regulation, food provisioning and cultural services. FutureMARES provides socially and economically viable nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate change (CC) adaptation and mitigation to safeguard these ecosystems’ natural capital, biodiversity and services.

The program advances understanding of the links between species and community traits, ecological functions and ecosystem services as impacted by CC by analysing the best available data from monitoring programs and conducting targeted experiments and beyond state-of-the-art modelling. Ensemble physical-biogeochemical projections will identify CC hotspots and refugia. Shifts in the distribution and productivity of keystone, structural and endangered species and the consequences for biodiversity will be projected within different CC-NBS scenarios to reveal potential ecological benefits, feedbacks and trade-offs.

Novel, socialecological vulnerability assessments will rank the severity of CC impacts on various ecosystem services and dependent human communities. Complementary analyses at real-world demonstration sites will inform managers and policy-makers on the economic costs and tradeoffs of NBS.

These physical, ecological, social and economic analyses will be integrated to develop three, climate-ready NBS:
i) restoration of habitat-forming species acting as ‘climate rescuers’ buffering coastal habitats from negative CC effects, improving seawater quality, and sequestering carbon.
ii) conservation actions explicitly considering the range of impacts of CC and other hazards on habitat suitability for biota to preserve the integrity of food webs (e.g. marine protected areas) and protect endangered species (e.g. charismatic megafauna).
iii) sustainable, ecosystem-based harvesting (capture and culture) of seafood. FutureMARES is co-developed with policy-makers and managers to ensure impactful and transformative cost-effective actions.

Partners
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, DTU Aqua
Universität Hamburg, Germany (coordinator)
Aarhus Universitet, Denmark
Aristotelio Panepistimio Thessalonikis, Greece
Fundacion Azti - Azti Fundazioa (Azti), Spain
Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, Chile
The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, United Kingdom
Ciimar - Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, Portugal
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy
Agencia Estatal Consejo Superior Deinvestigaciones Cientificas, Spain
Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute, Belize
Devon County Council, United Kingdom
Stichting Deltares, Netherlands
Associacao Para a Investigacao e Desenvolvimento de Ciencias, Portugal
Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Germany
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Greece
Instituto de Ciencias, Tecnologias e Agroambiente da Universidade do Porto, Portugal
Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, Israel
Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, France
Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture, France
Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Norsk Institutt for Vannforskning, Norway
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, United Kingdom
Consorzio di Gestione dell'Area Marina Protetta delPromontorio di Portofino, Italy
University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Stockholms Universitet, Sweden
Suomen Ymparistokeskus, Finland
Johann Heinrich Von Thuenen-Institut, Bundesforschungsinstitut für Laendliche Raeume, Wald Und Fischerei, Germany
WCMC, United Kingdom
Universita di Pisa, Italy
Universidad de Vigo, Spain
Stichting Wageningen Research, Netherlands

Funding
The project is funded by EU Horizon 2020.

Research area: Marine Populations and Ecosystem Dynamics