Arctic biodiversity change and its consequences: Assessing, monitoring and predicting the effects of ecosystem tipping cascades on marine ecosystem services and dependent human systems (39777/107637)

The Arctic marine environment is under rapid change, both in its physical and biotic conditions. The gradual loss of sea ice, increase in temperature, invasive species and compounding effects of additional ecosystem stressors are identified as likely causes of the observed turnover of Arctic species. Other issues of concern are the climatic tipping elements that are known to have affected the region in the geologic past, and that could well affect the region in the future, precipitating a regime shift of unprecedented magnitude. Predicting these changes in the Arctic ecosystem is hindered by several knowledge gaps, particularly in terms of mechanistic understanding of the coupling between drivers and responses. At stake are two important marine ecosystem services that human societies rely on; carbon sequestration with its feedback to global climate, and fisheries production that is the economic lifeblood of many of the local societies of the Arctic. 

ECOTIP will map out past and present Arctic biodiversity and its response to external drivers, and the effects of expanding commercial activities in the Arctic under expected climate change. It will investigate the resistance, resilience and persistence of key ecosystem components to multiple anthropogenic stressors, and estimate their potential tipping dynamics. It will use a trait-based approach in process studies, empirical analysis and numerical models as a novel means of quantifying functional diversity to  predict how different anthropogenic forcing scenarios (including climate, invasive species, pollution, exploitation) change biodiversity, productivity and ecosystem services. 

ECOTIP will engage with indigenous societies and European citizens to provide recommendations for optimizing the monitoring of Arctic biodiversity and ecosystem services, identify adaptation strategies, promote international collaboration and support Europe's endeavors to implement the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals.

Partners
National Institute of Aqua Resources, DTU Aqua (coordinator)
The Arctic University of Norway, Norway
Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Iceland
University of Stirling, United Kingdom
University of Copenhagen, Denmark
University of Vienna, Austria
Åbo Akademi University, Finland
Aarhus University, Denmark
Helmholtz Centre for Material and Coastal Research, Germany
Aalborg University, Denmark
Instytut Oceanologii Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Poland
Stiftelsen GRID-Arendal, Norway
Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Canada
The University of Tokyo, Japan
Kokuritsu Daigaku Hojin Hokkaido Daigaku, Japan
Greenland Nature Institute, Greenland

Funding
The project is funded by EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Research area: Oceanography
Research area: Marine Populations and Ecosystem Dynamics
Research area: Population Genetics