Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

Publication: Research - peer-reviewPaper – Annual report year: 2012

Standard

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios. / Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi.

2012. Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewPaper – Annual report year: 2012

Harvard

Custer, R & Nishijima, K 2012, 'Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios' Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore, 23/05/12 - 25/05/12,

APA

Custer, R., & Nishijima, K. (2012). Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios. Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore.

CBE

Custer R, Nishijima K. 2012. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios. Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore.

MLA

Vancouver

Custer R, Nishijima K. Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios. 2012. Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore.

Author

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi / Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios.

2012. Paper presented at Fifth Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications , Singapore, Singapore.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewPaper – Annual report year: 2012

Bibtex

@misc{5df6688a106c4f28a99a49be7b38e058,
title = "Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios",
keywords = "Disaggregation, Probabilistic model, Dirichlet distribution, Compositional data, Indicator, Insurance portfolio, Natural hazard, Flood risk",
author = "Rocco Custer and Kazuyoshi Nishijima",
year = "2012",
type = "ConferencePaper <importModel: ConferenceImportModel>",

}

RIS

TY - CONF

T1 - Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

A1 - Custer,Rocco

A1 - Nishijima,Kazuyoshi

AU - Custer,Rocco

AU - Nishijima,Kazuyoshi

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified and the relevance to natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated.

AB - In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified and the relevance to natural hazard risk assessment is illustrated.

KW - Disaggregation

KW - Probabilistic model

KW - Dirichlet distribution

KW - Compositional data

KW - Indicator

KW - Insurance portfolio

KW - Natural hazard

KW - Flood risk

ER -