Physical-stochastic (greybox) modeling of slugging

Research output: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2018

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We use state-based stochastic greybox modeling - combining physics and statistics - to model the slugging phenomenon. We extend the model of DiMeglio et al. (2010) to include random components and variable flow coefficients, providing 30 seconds prediction intervals. Altogether six models, each comprising no more than ten equations, are fitted to off-shore riser training data and then cross-validated on new data sets. We use advanced statistical methods to 1) obtain optimal parameters of a given model fitted to measurements, 2) give model predictions with uncertainty intervals, and 3) quantitatively measure the relative goodness of the extended models. These features of our reductive method are general and can be applied to any data sets. For the slugging data, simpler models are preferable over the more complex ones (although the differences are minute for practical purposes in oil and gas industry) and a high statistical significance obtained on the training data does not imply improved long term prediction on independent data. Better physical (mechanistic) models to capture slugging oscillations are needed, ultimately to develop effective control strategies.
Original languageEnglish
JournalIFAC-PapersOnLine
Volume51
Issue number8
Pages (from-to)197-202
ISSN2405-8963
DOIs
StatePublished - 2018
CitationsWeb of Science® Times Cited: 0

    Research areas

  • Stochastic greybox modeling, Slugging
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