Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models
Publication: Research - peer-review › Journal article – Annual report year: 2011
In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking
large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small
scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate
and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the
other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned
infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain
by permafrost. We present the current and future state of
permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the
GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to
2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential
(PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due
to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used
in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering
applications. The modelling shows that climate warming
will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming
and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present
observations. We provide examples of application of the risk
zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and
Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal | Cryosphere |
| Publication date | 2011 |
| Volume | 5 |
| Journal number | 4 |
| Pages | 1043-1056 |
| ISSN | 1994-0416 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published |
Bibliographical note
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
| Citations | Web of Science® Times Cited: 0 |
|---|
ID: 6459912