Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties : Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2011

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Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties : Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis. / Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen.

In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2012, p. 21-38.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2011

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Author

Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen / Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties : Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis.

In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2012, p. 21-38.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2011

Bibtex

@article{0506133ee00c451db53236574d2ce3a9,
title = "Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties",
publisher = "Technische Universiteit Delft",
author = "Salling, {Kim Bang} and Steen Leleur",
year = "2012",
volume = "12",
number = "1",
pages = "21--38",
journal = "European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research",
issn = "1567-7141",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

T2 - Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis

A1 - Salling,Kim Bang

A1 - Leleur,Steen

AU - Salling,Kim Bang

AU - Leleur,Steen

PB - Technische Universiteit Delft

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.

AB - This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk.

KW - Reference Class Forecasting

KW - Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

KW - Airfield Case

KW - Socio-Economic Analysis

KW - Reference Scenario Forecasting

KW - Scenario Analysis

KW - Quantitative Risk Analysis

UR - http://www.ejtir.tbm.tudelft.nl/issues/2012_01/abstracts/2012_01_01.asp

JO - European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research

JF - European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research

SN - 1567-7141

IS - 1

VL - 12

SP - 21

EP - 38

ER -