TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link

A1 - Salling,Kim Bang

A1 - Leleur,Steen

A1 - Jensen,Anders Vestergaard

AU - Salling,Kim Bang

AU - Leleur,Steen

AU - Jensen,Anders Vestergaard

PB - Elsevier

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG), the CLG-DSS model, is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set-up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Øresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described.

AB - This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG), the CLG-DSS model, is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set-up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Øresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described.

KW - Multi-Criteria Analysis

KW - Monte Carlo Simulation

KW - Cost-Benefit Analysis

KW - Risk Analysis

KW - Scenario Analysis

KW - Decision Support System

U2 - 10.1016/j.dss.2006.06.009

DO - 10.1016/j.dss.2006.06.009

JO - Decision Support Systems

JF - Decision Support Systems

IS - 4

VL - 43

SP - 1539

EP - 1547

ER -