Issues of epistemic uncertainty treatment in decision analysis for tropical cyclone risk management

Publication: Research - peer-reviewArticle in proceedings – Annual report year: 2011

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The present paper addresses challenging issues in tropical cyclone risk management. These issues are primarily concerned with the treatment of epistemic uncertainty in decision analysis. The paper is structured as follows. First, the general framework for the treatment of uncertainty is introduced. On this basis, the importance of the challenging issues is emphasized. As a first step for challenging these issues, the variability of the hazard assessment of tropical cyclones is investigated, which arises from various sources; among others the selection of modeling schemes, the specification of the selected modeling schemes, and the data set utilized for the modeling. The result shows that the variability of the wind speed corresponding to 100-year return period at Tokyo, Japan, is of approximately 3 m/s. It is found that the evaluated 100-year wind speeds are more sensitive to the discretization scheme in space, in which the characteristics of the typhoon transition is assumed homogeneous, and the data sets of the best track; less sensitive to the functional form for the modeling of the typhoon transition.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationApplications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
Publication date2011
Pages1637-1644
ISBN (print)978-0-415-66986-3
StatePublished

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
CountrySwitzerland
CityZurich
Period01/08/1104/08/11
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