Publication: Research - peer-review › Book chapter – Annual report year: 2016
India has made voluntary commitment for reducing the emission intensity of GDP in the year 2020 by 20–25 % below that in the year 2005. The Indian approach is based on delineating and implementing cost-effective mitigation actions which can contribute to national sustainable development goals while remaining aligned to the UNFCCC’s expressed objective of keeping the average global surface temperature increase to below 2 C over the preindustrial average. This chapter assesses three emission scenarios for India, spanning the period 2010–2050. The analysis is carried out using a bottom-up energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL, which is embedded within a soft-linked integrated model system (SLIMS). The central themes of the three scenario storylines and assumptions are as follows: first, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that assumes the socioeconomic development to happen along the conventional path that includes implementation of current and announced policies and their continuation dynamically into the future; second, a conventional low carbon scenario (CLCS) which assumes imposition, over the BAU scenario, of CO2 emission price trajectory that is equivalent to achieving the global 2 C target; and third, a sustainable scenario that assumes a number of sustainability-oriented policies and measures which are aimed to deliver national sustainable development goals and which in turn also deliver climate mitigation, resilience, and adaptation as co-benefits. The sustainable low carbon scenario (SLCS) also delivers same cumulative emissions from India, over the period 2010–2050, as the CLCS scenario using carbon price as well as a mix of sustainability-oriented policies and measures. The scenario analysis provides important information and insights for crafting future policies and actions that constitute an optimal roadmap of actions in India which can maximize net total benefits of carbon emissions mitigation and national sustainable development. A key contribution of the paper is the estimation of the net social value of carbon in India which is an important input for provisioning carbon finance for projects and programs as an integral part of financing NAMAs. The analysis in the paper will be useful for policymakers seeking to identify the CO2 mitigation roadmap which can constitute an optimal mix of INDCs for India.
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