Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation. / Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Eero, Margit; Blenckner, Thorsten; Tomczak, Maciej T; Niiranen, Susa.

In: Ambio, Vol. 41, No. 6, 2012, p. 626-636.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Eero, Margit; Blenckner, Thorsten; Tomczak, Maciej T; Niiranen, Susa / Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

In: Ambio, Vol. 41, No. 6, 2012, p. 626-636.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

Bibtex

@article{6921c4441d524bd1a4e0a2fd2a9368bb,
title = "Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation",
publisher = "Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien",
author = "Mackenzie, {Brian R} and Meier, {H E Markus} and Martin Lindegren and Stefan Neuenfeldt and Margit Eero and Thorsten Blenckner and Tomczak, {Maciej T} and Susa Niiranen",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y",
volume = "41",
number = "6",
pages = "626--636",
journal = "Ambio",
issn = "0044-7447",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

A1 - Mackenzie,Brian R

A1 - Meier,H E Markus

A1 - Lindegren,Martin

A1 - Neuenfeldt,Stefan

A1 - Eero,Margit

A1 - Blenckner,Thorsten

A1 - Tomczak,Maciej T

A1 - Niiranen,Susa

AU - Mackenzie,Brian R

AU - Meier,H E Markus

AU - Lindegren,Martin

AU - Neuenfeldt,Stefan

AU - Eero,Margit

AU - Blenckner,Thorsten

AU - Tomczak,Maciej T

AU - Niiranen,Susa

PB - Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties

AB - Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties

U2 - 10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y

DO - 10.1007/s13280-012-0325-y

JO - Ambio

JF - Ambio

SN - 0044-7447

IS - 6

VL - 41

SP - 626

EP - 636

ER -