The aim of the present paper is to advocate for a very effective stochastic procedure, based on the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), for extreme value predictions related to wave induced loads. All kinds of non-linearities can be included, as the procedure makes use of short time-domain simulations of the response in question. The procedure will be illustrated with a jack-up rig where second order stochastic waves are included in the analysis. The result is the probability of overturning as function of sea state and operational time.