Energy and emissions forecast of China over a long-time horizon

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2011

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  • Author: Rout, Ullash K.

    University College Cork (UCC), Lee Road Cork, Cork, Ireland, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

  • Author: Voβ, Alfred

    Universität Stuttgart

  • Author: Singh, Anoop

    Unknown

  • Author: Fahl, Ulrich

    Universität Stuttgart

  • Author: Blesl, Markus

    Universität Stuttgart

  • Author: Gallachóir, Brian P. Ó

    University College Cork (UCC), Lee Road Cork, Cork, Ireland, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

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Forecasts of energy demand, the fuel mix meeting that demand and the associated emissions are a key requirement for informed energy planning and policy decisions to ensure energy security and address climate change. While there have been many studies on China focusing on the short and medium term (to 2020 and 2050) there is little in the literature focusing on the long term (to 2100). This paper seeks to address those gaps on sectoral energy demands and emissions on long term by following a two-stage approach. It develops key energy indicators on useful energy demand, transport mobility and end use fuel demand for various sectors. The main drivers of these indicators are socio-economic parameters. The indicators are used to project energy service demands and emissions forward for China in TIMES G5 model at least cost approach. The results from this reference scenario suggest that China will require approximately 4 Gtoe of primary energy, by the end of the 21st century to deliver 3 Gtoe final energy consumption, 10 PWh of electricity generation, 1.3 Gtoe of energy imports, which will results in 10 Gt CO2 emissions.
Keyword: Energy demand,TIMES model,Energy indicator,Emission
Original languageEnglish
JournalEnergy
Publication date2011
Volume36
Journal number1
Pages1-11
ISSN0360-5442
DOIs
StatePublished
CitationsWeb of Science® Times Cited: No match on DOI
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