TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

A1 - Meier,H E Markus

A1 - Andersson,Helén C

A1 - Arheimer,Berit

A1 - Blenckner,Thorsten

A1 - Chubarenko,Boris

A1 - Donnelly,Chantal

A1 - Eilola,Kari

A1 - Gustafsson,Bo G

A1 - Hansson,Anders

A1 - Havenhand,Jonathan

A1 - Höglund,Anders

A1 - Kuznetsov,Ivan

A1 - MacKenzie,Brian R

A1 - Müller-Karulis,Bärbel

A1 - Neumann,Thomas

A1 - Niiranen,Susa

A1 - Piwowarczyk,Joanna

A1 - Raudsepp,Urmas

A1 - Reckermann,Marcus

A1 - Ruoho-Airola,Tuija

A1 - Savchuk,Oleg P

A1 - Schenk,Frederik

A1 - Schimanke,Semjon

A1 - Väli,Germo

A1 - Weslawski,Jan-Marcin

A1 - Zorita,Eduardo

AU - Meier,H E Markus

AU - Andersson,Helén C

AU - Arheimer,Berit

AU - Blenckner,Thorsten

AU - Chubarenko,Boris

AU - Donnelly,Chantal

AU - Eilola,Kari

AU - Gustafsson,Bo G

AU - Hansson,Anders

AU - Havenhand,Jonathan

AU - Höglund,Anders

AU - Kuznetsov,Ivan

AU - MacKenzie,Brian R

AU - Müller-Karulis,Bärbel

AU - Neumann,Thomas

AU - Niiranen,Susa

AU - Piwowarczyk,Joanna

AU - Raudsepp,Urmas

AU - Reckermann,Marcus

AU - Ruoho-Airola,Tuija

AU - Savchuk,Oleg P

AU - Schenk,Frederik

AU - Schimanke,Semjon

AU - Väli,Germo

AU - Weslawski,Jan-Marcin

AU - Zorita,Eduardo

PB - Institute of Physics Publishing

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

AB - Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

UR - http://iopscience.iop.org.globalproxy.cvt.dk/1748-9326/7/3/034005/pdf/1748-9326_7_3_034005.pdf

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034005

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034005

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 3

VL - 7

SP - 034005

ER -