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  • Author: Meier, H E Markus

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Andersson, Helén C

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Arheimer, Berit

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Blenckner, Thorsten

    Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden

  • Author: Chubarenko, Boris

    Atlantic Branch of P P Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 236000 Kaliningrad, Russian Federation

  • Author: Donnelly, Chantal

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Eilola, Kari

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Gustafsson, Bo G

    Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden

  • Author: Hansson, Anders

    Linköping University

  • Author: Havenhand, Jonathan

    Department of Biological & Environmental Sciences—Tjärnö, University of Gothenburg, 45296 Strömstad, Sweden

  • Author: Höglund, Anders

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Kuznetsov, Ivan

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: MacKenzie, Brian R

    Section for Ocean Ecology and Climate, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Slot Jægersborg Allé 1, 2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark

  • Author: Müller-Karulis, Bärbel

    Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden

  • Author: Neumann, Thomas, Denmark

    Juridisk Institut, Denmark

  • Author: Niiranen, Susa

    Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden

  • Author: Piwowarczyk, Joanna

    Marine Ecology Department, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 81-712 Sopot, Poland

  • Author: Raudsepp, Urmas

    Marine Systems Institute, Tallinn University of Technology, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia

  • Author: Reckermann, Marcus

    International BALTEX Secretariat, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

  • Author: Ruoho-Airola, Tuija

    Finnish Meteorological Institute, 00101 Helsinki, Finland

  • Author: Savchuk, Oleg P

    Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden

  • Author: Schenk, Frederik

    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

  • Author: Schimanke, Semjon

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Väli, Germo

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden

  • Author: Weslawski, Jan-Marcin

    Marine Ecology Department, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 81-712 Sopot, Poland

  • Author: Zorita, Eduardo

    Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

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Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850–2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850–2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961–2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic ‘business-as-usual’ to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Publication date2012
Volume7
Journal number3
Pages034005
ISSN1748-9326
DOIs
StatePublished
CitationsWeb of Science® Times Cited: 9
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