Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

Publication: Research - peer-reviewConference abstract in journal – Annual report year: 2012

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During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliability of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity models have been explored in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of
Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model features relevant to sea level modeling, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in
Antarctica and Greenland due to GIA. GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which
can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA.
Original languageEnglish
JournalGeophysical Research Abstracts
Publication date2012
Volume14
PagesEGU2012-9717
Number of pages1
ISSN1607-7962
StatePublished

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012
Number9
CountryAustria
CityVienna
Period22/04/1227/04/12
Internet addresshttp://www.egu2012.eu/home.html
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