Appraisal of Airport Alternatives in Greenland by the use of Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
Publication: Research - peer-review › Article in proceedings – Annual report year: 2007
This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncer-tain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time sav-ings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit-cost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title | Winter Simulation Conference '07 |
| Volume | 40th anniversary |
| Publisher | iel |
| Publication date | 2007 |
| Pages | 1986-1993 |
| ISBN (print) | 9781424413058 |
| State | Published |
Conference
| Conference | 2007 Winter Simulation Conference |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| City | Washington DC |
| Period | 01-01-07 → … |
Keywords
- Transport Appraisal, Monte Carlo Simulation, Risk Analysis, Decision Support System
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