Appraisal of Airport Alternatives in Greenland by the use of Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Publication: Research - peer-reviewArticle in proceedings – Annual report year: 2007

View graph of relations

This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncer-tain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time sav-ings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit-cost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWinter Simulation Conference '07
Volume40th anniversary
Publication date2007
ISBN (print)9781424413058
StatePublished - 2007
Event2007 Winter Simulation Conference - Washington DC, United States


Conference2007 Winter Simulation Conference
CountryUnited States
CityWashington DC


  • Transport Appraisal, Monte Carlo Simulation, Risk Analysis, Decision Support System
Download as:
Download as PDF
Select render style:
Download as HTML
Select render style:
Download as Word
Select render style:

ID: 3149494