Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites. / Troldborg, Mads; Nowak, Wolfgang; Lange, Ida Vedel; Pompeia Ramos dos Santos, Marta Cecilia; Binning, Philip John; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup.

In: Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, No. 9, 2012, p. W09535.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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Troldborg, Mads; Nowak, Wolfgang; Lange, Ida Vedel; Pompeia Ramos dos Santos, Marta Cecilia; Binning, Philip John; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup / Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites.

In: Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, No. 9, 2012, p. W09535.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

Bibtex

@article{4af25b06589046e1be95da4c1744e1db,
title = "Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
author = "Mads Troldborg and Wolfgang Nowak and Lange, {Ida Vedel} and {Pompeia Ramos dos Santos}, {Marta Cecilia} and Binning, {Philip John} and Bjerg, {Poul Løgstrup}",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1029/2011WR011785",
volume = "48",
number = "9",
pages = "W09535",
journal = "Water Resources Research",
issn = "0043-1397",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Application of Bayesian geostatistics for evaluation of mass discharge uncertainty at contaminated sites

A1 - Troldborg,Mads

A1 - Nowak,Wolfgang

A1 - Lange,Ida Vedel

A1 - Pompeia Ramos dos Santos,Marta Cecilia

A1 - Binning,Philip John

A1 - Bjerg,Poul Løgstrup

AU - Troldborg,Mads

AU - Nowak,Wolfgang

AU - Lange,Ida Vedel

AU - Pompeia Ramos dos Santos,Marta Cecilia

AU - Binning,Philip John

AU - Bjerg,Poul Løgstrup

PB - American Geophysical Union

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Such estimates are, however, rather uncertain as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow. Here a geostatistical simulation method for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane is presented. The method accounts for (1) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics, (2) measurement uncertainty, and (3) uncertain source zone and transport parameters. The method generates conditional realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution. An analytical macrodispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed deviations from this mean solution. By combining the flow and concentration realizations, a mass discharge probability distribution is obtained. The method has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is demonstrated on a field site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. For this site, we show that including a physically meaningful concentration trend and the cosimulation of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient across the transect helps constrain the mass discharge uncertainty. The number of sampling points required for accurate mass discharge estimation and the relative influence of different data types on mass discharge uncertainty is discussed. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.

AB - Mass discharge estimates are increasingly being used when assessing risks of groundwater contamination and designing remedial systems at contaminated sites. Such estimates are, however, rather uncertain as they integrate uncertain spatial distributions of both concentration and groundwater flow. Here a geostatistical simulation method for quantifying the uncertainty of the mass discharge across a multilevel control plane is presented. The method accounts for (1) heterogeneity of both the flow field and the concentration distribution through Bayesian geostatistics, (2) measurement uncertainty, and (3) uncertain source zone and transport parameters. The method generates conditional realizations of the spatial flow and concentration distribution. An analytical macrodispersive transport solution is employed to simulate the mean concentration distribution, and a geostatistical model of the Box-Cox transformed concentration data is used to simulate observed deviations from this mean solution. By combining the flow and concentration realizations, a mass discharge probability distribution is obtained. The method has the advantage of avoiding the heavy computational burden of three-dimensional numerical flow and transport simulation coupled with geostatistical inversion. It may therefore be of practical relevance to practitioners compared to existing methods that are either too simple or computationally demanding. The method is demonstrated on a field site contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. For this site, we show that including a physically meaningful concentration trend and the cosimulation of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient across the transect helps constrain the mass discharge uncertainty. The number of sampling points required for accurate mass discharge estimation and the relative influence of different data types on mass discharge uncertainty is discussed. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.

KW - Groundwater

KW - Groundwater flow

KW - Microchannels

KW - Numerical methods

KW - Probability distributions

KW - Three dimensional computer graphics

KW - Uncertainty analysis

KW - Discharge (fluid mechanics)

U2 - 10.1029/2011WR011785

DO - 10.1029/2011WR011785

JO - Water Resources Research

JF - Water Resources Research

SN - 0043-1397

IS - 9

VL - 48

SP - W09535

ER -