TY - JOUR

T1 - A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

A1 - Nishijima,Kazuyoshi

A1 - Maruyama,Takashi

A1 - Graf,Mathias

AU - Nishijima,Kazuyoshi

AU - Maruyama,Takashi

AU - Graf,Mathias

PB - Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of<br/>the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on<br/>residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on<br/>(1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by<br/>the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation<br/>model developed within the KAKUSHIN program; (2) the<br/>probabilistic typhoon modeling scheme developed by our<br/>group; (3) a fragility model empirically estimated on the<br/>basis of the damage report of typhoon Songda in 2004 and<br/>the reproduced wind field by a mesoscale meteorological<br/>model; JMA-NHM. The main results are that in the future<br/>(2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind<br/>events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s)<br/>are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual<br/>maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number<br/>of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that<br/>the profile of the building portfolio remains unchanged.<br/>Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to the<br/>assessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs of<br/>further research efforts toward more credible and<br/>comprehensive assessment are addressed.

AB - This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of<br/>the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on<br/>residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on<br/>(1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by<br/>the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation<br/>model developed within the KAKUSHIN program; (2) the<br/>probabilistic typhoon modeling scheme developed by our<br/>group; (3) a fragility model empirically estimated on the<br/>basis of the damage report of typhoon Songda in 2004 and<br/>the reproduced wind field by a mesoscale meteorological<br/>model; JMA-NHM. The main results are that in the future<br/>(2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind<br/>events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s)<br/>are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual<br/>maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number<br/>of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that<br/>the profile of the building portfolio remains unchanged.<br/>Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to the<br/>assessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs of<br/>further research efforts toward more credible and<br/>comprehensive assessment are addressed.

KW - Climate change

KW - Risk

KW - Impact assessment

KW - Adaptation

KW - Tropical cyclone

UR - http://www.hrljournal.org/

U2 - 10.3178/HRL.6.23

DO - 10.3178/HRL.6.23

JO - Hydrological Research Letters

JF - Hydrological Research Letters

VL - 6

SP - 23

EP - 28

ER -