A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change. / Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi ; Graf, Mathias .

In: Hydrological Research Letters, Vol. 6, 2012, p. 23-28.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

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Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi ; Graf, Mathias / A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change.

In: Hydrological Research Letters, Vol. 6, 2012, p. 23-28.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2012

Bibtex

@article{eba15cb17e374494824865d3e6b2e414,
title = "A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change",
abstract = "This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment ofthe climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing onresidential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on(1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation bythe super-high resolution atmospheric general circulationmodel developed within the KAKUSHIN program; (2) theprobabilistic typhoon modeling scheme developed by ourgroup; (3) a fragility model empirically estimated on thebasis of the damage report of typhoon Songda in 2004 andthe reproduced wind field by a mesoscale meteorologicalmodel; JMA-NHM. The main results are that in the future(2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme windevents (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s)are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annualmaximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected numberof damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming thatthe profile of the building portfolio remains unchanged.Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to theassessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs offurther research efforts toward more credible andcomprehensive assessment are addressed.",
keywords = "Climate change, Risk, Impact assessment, Adaptation, Tropical cyclone",
author = "Kazuyoshi Nishijima and Takashi Maruyama and Mathias Graf",
note = "Copyright (c) 2012 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.3178/HRL.6.23",
volume = "6",
pages = "23--28",
journal = "Hydrological Research Letters",
publisher = "Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

AU - Nishijima,Kazuyoshi

AU - Maruyama,Takashi

AU - Graf,Mathias

N1 - Copyright (c) 2012 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment ofthe climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing onresidential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on(1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation bythe super-high resolution atmospheric general circulationmodel developed within the KAKUSHIN program; (2) theprobabilistic typhoon modeling scheme developed by ourgroup; (3) a fragility model empirically estimated on thebasis of the damage report of typhoon Songda in 2004 andthe reproduced wind field by a mesoscale meteorologicalmodel; JMA-NHM. The main results are that in the future(2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme windevents (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s)are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annualmaximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected numberof damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming thatthe profile of the building portfolio remains unchanged.Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to theassessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs offurther research efforts toward more credible andcomprehensive assessment are addressed.

AB - This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment ofthe climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing onresidential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on(1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation bythe super-high resolution atmospheric general circulationmodel developed within the KAKUSHIN program; (2) theprobabilistic typhoon modeling scheme developed by ourgroup; (3) a fragility model empirically estimated on thebasis of the damage report of typhoon Songda in 2004 andthe reproduced wind field by a mesoscale meteorologicalmodel; JMA-NHM. The main results are that in the future(2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme windevents (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s)are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annualmaximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected numberof damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming thatthe profile of the building portfolio remains unchanged.Based on these results, the assumptions and inputs to theassessment are critically reviewed. Thereby, the needs offurther research efforts toward more credible andcomprehensive assessment are addressed.

KW - Climate change

KW - Risk

KW - Impact assessment

KW - Adaptation

KW - Tropical cyclone

U2 - 10.3178/HRL.6.23

DO - 10.3178/HRL.6.23

M3 - Journal article

VL - 6

SP - 23

EP - 28

JO - Hydrological Research Letters

T2 - Hydrological Research Letters

JF - Hydrological Research Letters

ER -