A long-distance travel demand model for Europe

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article – Annual report year: 2011

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In Europe, approximately 50% of all passenger kilometres come from trips beyond 100 km according to matrices developed in the TRANSTOOLS project. This accounts for an even larger share of CO2 emissions due to a higher modal share of air transport. Therefore long-distance trips are increasingly relevant from a political and environmental point of view. The paper presents the first tour-based long-distance travel demand model for passenger trips in and between 42 European countries. The model is part of a new European transport model developed for the European Commission, the TRANSTOOLS II model, and will serve as an important tool for transport policy analysis at a European level. The model is formulated as a nested logit model and estimated based on travel diary data with segmentation into business, private, and holiday trips. We analyse the estimation results and present elasticities for a number of different level-of-service variables. The results suggest that the perception of both travel time and cost varies with journey length in a non-linear way. For car drivers and car passengers, elasticities increase with the length of the journey, whereas the opposite is true for rail, bus, and air passengers - a fact that reflects a change in substitutability. Moreover, elasticities differ significantly by trip purpose with private trips having the highest and holiday trips the lowest elasticities.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research
Publication date2012
Volume12
Issue1
Pages1-20
ISSN1567-7141
StatePublished

Keywords

  • Mode choice, Long-distance model, Discrete choice, Revealed-preference data, Destination choice, Passenger demand
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